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02/02/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Some of the NFL's greatest coaches were unmistakable in presence.
Hear a gruff voice while watching a 1960's era NFL Films marathon: It's Green Bays Vince Lombardi. See the outline of a hat atop an angular and expressionless face: It's Dallas' Tom Landry. Notice a jutting chin at the end of a powerful jaw line: It's Pittsburghs Bill Cowher.
And come Feb. 5 in Indianapolis, another signature look joins the honor roll. But no, it's not the somber-looking chap in the navy blue hooded sweatshirt. Instead, welcome New York Giants head coach Tom Coughlin to the fraternity for his own go-to facial expression: Middle-aged man with Type A personality with a look resembling someone smelling raw sewage.
Of course, if things go well for Big Blue over 60 on-field minutes at Lucas Oil Stadium, Coughlin resume will have a new line that reads a lot sweeter than his face might project:
Two-time Super Bowl champion.
Perhaps a fitting reward for a sturdy 16-year veteran of the league's short- term sidelines, complete with 142 regular-season wins, nine playoff appearances in two cities and as improbable as a championship run as there's been -- the one that ended with the 10-6 Giants defeating the 16-0 New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII four years ago.
And surely a far cry from the epitaphs flung in Coughlin direction as recently as two months ago, when a 6-2 start crumbled into a 6-6 crevasse and prompted some to boldly forecast an imminent demise.
"Tom Coughlin has no choice but to reconnect with his team this week, and find something, anything, to restore its credibility," ESPNNewYork columnist Ian OConnor wrote in late November. "If he fails, Coughlin is not going to lose only his cool or his mind. He is going to lose his job."
The piece ran under the hindsight-unfortunate headline of "Coughlin can't weather another collapse."
"For winning that epic Super Bowl, and for standing among the best coaches in franchise history, Coughlin will always have the memories," O'Connor continued.
"Those will be his parting gifts."
But if anyone expected the 65-year-old native of upstate New York to channel North Jersey stadium co-habitant Rex Ryan and mock the media for getting it so far wrong on him yet again -- they don't know Coughlin.
Because it's simply not his style.
"Staying the course, never saying never," he instead said when asked for the mental mantra that propelled him through the latest bout of tough times. Trying to encourage at every point throughout the season, whether it was good or bad, not denying the facts, but nevertheless seeing that we had a talented team and believing in that team.
"Thinking that if we could only get all of these pieces together, maybe we would have a chance to make ourselves recognized. I felt like we were always in contention to win the division, even when things weren't going as well as we'd have liked them."
As it turned out, while Ryan's self-promoting talk petered out as the crosstown-rival Jets crumbled from 7-5 to 8-8, Coughlin steered the Giants to three wins in their last four regular-season tests while capturing a chaotic NFC East and parlaying it into a New England rematch in Super Bowl XLVI following January defeats of seeds No. 5 (Atlanta), No. 1 (Green Bay) and No. 2 (San Francisco), respectively, in the conference.
The Giants' present run is at least vaguely reminiscent of 2007, when while the Patriots were laying waste to foes in record-setting fashion, Coughlin's team trudged along under the spotlight in losing their first two games, then winning six straight and splitting the final eight en route to a 10-6 finish and an NFC Wild Card berth.
That time around, they strung together road playoff defeats of fourth-seeded Tampa Bay, top-seeded Dallas and No. 2 Green Bay -- an NFC Championship Game noteworthy as Brett Favre's final one as a Packer -- before beating the Patriots at Arizona's University of Phoenix Stadium on Eli Manning's fade- route touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress with 35 second left.
It was a nice celebration to a surely epic comeback. But when the Giants failed to replicate their postseason success a year later, then missed the tournament altogether in successive seasons in 2009 and 2010, the keyboard- wielding jackals returned.
While composing a 2011 preview for the Giants, ESPN columnist Dan Graziano fired this verbal warning shot:
"Coughlin survived the collapse of 2009, and the fact that the team won 10 games [in 2010] certainly helped him survive last season's lack of a playoff appearance. But if these Giants bottom out (as their lack of depth could lead them to do), one must wonder if the team will go in another direction at coach, or even if Coughlin might decide to go in a different direction himself.
A bad year in New York could bring about change at a number of spots for the Giants."
Again, well...let's just say reports of the demise were a bit premature.
And the whole debate is enough to make Giants defensive end Justin Tuck laugh.
"This might be the defining career season for him," Tuck said of Coughlin. "I don't see why he wouldn't be the top candidate for Coach of the Year considering the pressure that's on him in New York. It is definitely the type of city that's about 'what have you done for me lately'? And it just seems every year Coach Coughlin's job is up for grabs.
"I know it's a lot of pressure on him and he's always not really wavering either way. You really couldn't tell if he's a coach that has won four Super Bowls in a row or a coach that is on the hot seat all season. He stays even- keeled and kind of stuck to his guns, and believed what this team was going to be about. And I think that has trickled downstairs and trickled throughout this entire franchise."
For his part, Coughlin insists the constant tumult has brought his team closer. In fact, he claimed this week that the unit that captured the NFC title with a 20-17 overtime win against the 49ers at Candlestick Park on Jan. 22 was as galvanized as any he's been a part of. That victory, incidentally, came exactly 77 days after New York beat New England by a 24-20 verdict at Gillette Stadium in Week 9 of the 2011 regular season.
"I understand young people and all that goes with that, but these guys have been able to really create a very strong business-like approach to what they're doing," Coughlin said. "Whether you use the word fellowship or whatever word you want to use, there's a strong, strong feeling among this group. It's been a great source of pride for all of us as coaches."
The Giants' aforementioned Super Bowl win over the Patriots, by the way, came exactly four years ago on the Friday prior to this year's championship game.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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