Dalton leads TCU past Oregon State

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/04/2010 - Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andy Dalton threw a touchdown and ran two in, including the go-ahead score in the third quarter, as sixth-ranked TCU downed No. 24 Oregon State, 30-21.

Dalton went 17-for-27 with 175 yards and two interceptions, and also had 15 carries for 64 yards for the Horned Frogs (1-0), who finished last season 12-0 to capture the Mountain West Conference title, but lost to Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl.

Saturday's win was the 30th of Dalton's collegiate career, moving him into first all-time at the school, surpassing legend Sammy Baugh.

Ed Wesley finished the game with 17 carries for 134 yards and a score while Jeremy Kerley caught a touchdown as part of a six-reception, 49-yard effort for TCU.

Ryan Katz went 9-for-25 for 159 yards and two scores for the Beavers (0-1), who posted an 8-5 mark last season, but ended the campaign on a down note after a 44-20 loss to BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl. Jacquizz Rodgers had 18 carries for 75 yards and a score while James Rodgers and Jordan Bishop each caught a touchdown pass.

Holding a seven-point lead, TCU started the second half with the ball and drove into scoring position, but on 3rd-and-1 at the Oregon State 14, Dalton was picked off by Dwight Roberson.

Facing a 3rd-and-2, Oregon State moved the chains on a 22-yard catch by James Rodgers that saw a 15-yard personal foul call on TCU move the ball past midfield. A 15-yard run around the right side by Jacquizz Rodgers set up a 1st-and-goal at the one-yard line and he punched it in on the next play to tie the contest at 21-21 with 5:33 left in the third.

The Horned Frogs, though, responded on their next touch to retake the lead. First down carries of 14 and 10 yards by Wesley got the ball past midfield and Matthew Tucker setup a 1st-and-goal at the 10 with a four-yard run. Three plays later, Dalton kept the ball himself on a four-yard score for a 28-21 lead with under a minute to play in the third.

From there it became a game of punts as each team booted the ball twice before the next score came.

After an Anson Kelton punt for 34 yards was fair caught by James Rodgers, Oregon State had the ball at its own 18-yard line.

On the first play, Katz was calling and audible and tried to get set back up in the shotgun, but the ball was snapped before he was ready and it sailed over his head before he kicked it out of the end zone to give TCU a safety and the ball back with just over four minutes to play.

From there, TCU ate up the rest of the clock to open the season with the win.

Lance Mitchell helped setup the first score of the game as he picked off Dalton and returned the ball 21 yards to the TCU 31. Two plays later, Katz tossed a 30-yard touchdown to James Rodgers to give the Beavers a 7-0 lead a bit over three minutes in.

Dalton and the Horned Frogs, though, responded with an impressive drive to tie the game. The nine-play, 84-yard drive was capped when Dalton took the ball himself six yards into the end zone with 7:19 left in the first.

Oregon State got into scoring position on its next touch, but Justin Kahut's 47-yard field goal attempt went well wide to the left.

TCU was forced to punt on its next possession and the Beavers promptly moved the ball down the field to take the lead. After a 23-yard catch from Jordan Poyer on a fake punt moved the ball to the TCU 34, Katz lofted a perfect pass to an in-stride Bishop, who took it into the end zone for a 14-7 lead just over three minutes into the second.

The Horned Frogs, though, answered after the kickoff to again tie the game. The seven-play, 74 yard drive was capped on a one-yard catch by Kerley from Dalton with 8:39 left in the half.

Later in the second, a poor punt from Johnny Hecker was returned 34 yards by Kerley to give TCU the ball at the Oregon State 23. Four plays later, Wesley picked his way into the end zone inside the right guard from eight yards out to make it a 21-14 lead heading into the break.

Game Notes

This was the first-ever meeting between these schools...TCU totaled 453 yards on the ground and held the ball for close to 39 minutes...Oregon State finished the game with 255 yards...Tucker had 20 carries for 74 yards.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.